The Horizon is Closer Than It Appears
For years, we’ve treated Horizon 3 innovation like a moonshot. These were far-off bets we hope will pay off someday, safely removed from the core business. It was a comforting illusion: we could acknowledge the future without having to engage with it. But like most illusions, it didn’t age well.
Today, the horizon isn’t ten years out. It’s next quarter, perhaps even next week. Emerging technologies don’t wait patiently in the lab. They break out, scale fast, and change customer expectations overnight. What was once the bleeding edge is quickly becoming table stakes.
Steve Blank recently pointed out, that mental model no longer applies. All three horizons operate in parallel now. Innovation is no longer a linear path. It’s a simultaneous juggling act between now, next, and what’s emerging.
This shift requires a different mindset.
First, we need to stop treating Horizon 3 as something defined by the calendar. It’s not “what we’ll care about in 2030” it’s what’s just outside your operational comfort zone today. For example, AI is already deeply embedded across industries. If that’s Horizon 1 now, Horizon 3 might be quantum computing or autonomous decision frameworks. What matters is not the timeline, but the potential for disruption.
Next, it’s crucial to focus on capabilities and not just technology. The trap too many organizations fall into is tech-first thinking: chasing blockchain or metaverse hype without asking what business value they’re trying to unlock. A more grounded approach is to ask: What do we need to be able to do that we can’t do today? That question leads to meaningful innovation, whether it's real-time personalization, trusted data provenance, or radically adaptive systems.
Finally, Horizon 3 shouldn't exist in a vacuum. The skunkworks approach of separate teams, with their own goals, and no connection with the rest of the organization is where good ideas are born and then die. These efforts must be loosely coupled and strategically aligned with the business. That means executive sponsorship, visibility throughout, and a well-defined means to bring mature ideas into the mainstream.
That’s the thing about Horizon 3: it doesn’t wait. The signals are already there if you’re paying attention. The challenge isn’t to predict the future, but rather to be ready when it shows up. It's not unlike the well-known advice in hockey to "skate to where the puck is going to be."
The bridge isn’t just for crossing from now to next. It's where you go so you can see what’s coming. And from here, the future looks a lot closer than we thought.
